One year ago, the New York Times published "How Much Does America Spend?", a breakdown of federal spending in the context of President Trump's cost-cutting promises through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Trump had declared war on government waste, vowing to slash fraud, shed federal workers, and shrink the bureaucracy. Now, with a full fiscal year of data available, we revisit the Times' analysis to see how things have actually played out—and where the original reporting may have missed the mark.
In the article, the Times stated that "federal spending is actually higher this year than it was at this
point in 2024," in the context of criticizing the DOGE, an agency that has indiscriminately slashed budgets
and let federal employees go on an immense scale since its launch in mid-January last year. Setting aside
DOGE's highly doubtful self-proclaimed achievements, it was not only an early assessment to make on the
department (the article was published on March 31, 2025), but it was also inaccurate.
Below the Times’ chart, it is noted that the data was not adjusted for inflation. According to our analysis, however, federal spending is not conspicuously higher in any given year. Once inflation is accounted for, you can see a clearer picture: federal spending fluctuating within an expected variance without any particular spike. While this year’s line was drawn slightly higher than the rest during February, it is still too premature to say the spending is actually bigger.
The graph shows that while the share of federal debt to G.D.P. saw huge bumps in both 2008 and 2020 due to the Great Recession and COVID-19 respectively, the ratio saw a slight dip in the post-pandemic period since its 2020 peak at 98.5%.
Last year, however, it broke through the pandemic-era ceiling, setting a record-high figure in the twenty-first century at nearly 100%. It is the highest level since the years immediately following World War II.
Looking ahead, the outlook is concerning. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)'s January 2025 projections, federal debt is expected to continue climbing, reaching 118% of G.D.P. by 2035 if current policies remain unchanged. The CBO warns that sustained high debt levels will push interest payments even higher, eventually crowding out other government priorities—money that could otherwise fund infrastructure, research, or tax relief. High debt also limits the government's ability to respond to future crises. When the next recession or pandemic hits, there may be less fiscal room to maneuver.
The Times explained the rising national debt in their reporting, saying "today, the federal government spends more to pay off its debt each year than it spends on Medicare or the military," without citing the slim 0.2% margin between interest payments and the two. For FY2025, the hierarchy shifted: Medicare first, then interest payments, then Defense—interest payments lower than Medicare by 0.4% and higher than Defense by 0.7%.
What's more striking here is that federal funding for education plunged by almost 78 percent. During his election campaign, Trump publicly vowed to dismantle the Department of Education (ED), a long-standing goal of Republicans who believe the federal government holds too much power over education—such as mandating Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs, though all authorization and decision-making power on what to teach is already in each state government's hands. Because the agency can only be lawfully abolished by Congress, the administration has focused on effectively gutting it by making deep cuts to existing programs and laying off thousands of employees.
But it requires further investigation to conclude that the US education system is collapsing, since there are two caveats to this interpretation: First, this chart uses "function" as its category, so training, employment, and social services are grouped under education alongside actual educational spending. Therefore, it would be incorrect to say that the sharp decrease in federal education spending is solely caused by the administration's gutting efforts. Second, the Trump administration ordered the ED to transfer some of its programs to other agencies as part of its effort to dismantle the department. For instance, $28 billion for elementary and secondary education was transferred to the Department of Labor.
